Bitcoin Price Breaks Historical Downtrend Ahead of April 2023 Halving
Historical data suggests that the Bitcoin price has breached the macro downtrend range of 365 to 397 days before a halving event. The upcoming Bitcoin halving in April 2023 falls within this expected breakout range.
On a micro-scale, BTC is performing exceptionally well, indicating the start of Bitcoin season. As the leading cryptocurrency, much is expected from Bitcoin, and this setup could be a sign of things to come.
In the macro timeframe, Bitcoin has seen a significant drop from its all-time high of $67,500 in 2022, currently trading at $27,000. While many analysts have attributed this drawdown to macroeconomic events and internal crypto company failures, the recent uptick in price is a promising sign for Bitcoin's future.
Bitcoin Price Pattern Continues After Halving in 2016
Following the halving of 2016, Bitcoin price has adhered to a pattern that has played out successfully twice in a row. Rekt Capital notes that BTC forms lows per a macro downtrend, which it breaks out of close to a year before the halving event.
This pattern occurred in 2015, 366 days before the halving, and again in 2019, 395 days before the halving. If Bitcoin follows this setup again, it would mark the third time the pattern has repeated itself, with the next halving scheduled for April 2023, just 397 days away.
Bitcoin's Macro Downtrend Could Be Invalidated with Monthly Close Above Trend Line
If Bitcoin's monthly candlestick closes above the downtrend line, it could invalidate the macro downtrend and potentially support a long-term price rise. Previous breakouts before halving events resulted in BTC increasing by over 183%. While a similar rise may not be expected this time around, Bitcoin could at least stay above $25,000.
On the micro-scale, Bitcoin has been performing well, with the cryptocurrency rising almost 35% in the last seven days to trade at $27,700. This is a significant increase from almost falling below $19,000.
However, altcoins did not experience a similar surge in price, with only a few marking significant gains. Most of the top 50 altcoins over the last 90 days had smaller increases than BTC
As a result, the market has shifted back to Bitcoin season. The altcoin season will only return when at least 75% of the top 50 altcoins outperform Bitcoin, but this currently seems unlikely.
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